Recent Substack posts have stated Pfizer Jabbing in Czechia "Czech Republic" is less toxic than Moderna. I have assembled some data that might complement them.
I subscribe to 174 substacks, many concerning COVID-19 etc. and I had not seen this most interesting article (ref 5) before:
Does the healthy vaccinee bias rule them all? Association of COVID-19 vaccination status and all-cause mortality from an analysis of data from 2.2 million individual health records
Tomáš Fürst, Angelika Bazalová, Tadeáš Fryčák, Jaroslav Janošek
International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2024-02-22
Here is my attempt, without spending a few days on it, at making sense of these observations.
I didn't fully understand their model and their claim that their model reproduced the pattern of observations didn't seem right to me, however, the meaning of the colours in the model Fig 4 are different from those in the observations Fig 2 and I would need to spend an hour or two really analysing this to make sense of it.
Fig S5 (in the supplementary Word file) is of observations and uses the same colours as for Fig 2. Without looking too closely at these few hundred bars, I got the impression that their Fig 3 (bottom section) analysis was correct. This is my attempt at understanding this complex data:
[AA] In Fig 2, low COVID sections, the blue bars (2nd colour - dark blue is for non-injected) mortality rates for those who died 4 weeks or less after their first injection) are significantly lower than those of the uninjected, for all three age groups, by a factor of 3 or more.
This seems to indicate that the injected were inherently much healthier than those who were not - the "healthy vaccinee effect" (HVE).
See also Fig 1 at: https://drclarecraig.substack.com/p/why-i-am-backing-steve-kirsch-on. If this was a placebo controlled trial, this graph would indicate that the so-called vaccines saved lives. However, it was not, and the entire trend of "vaccinated" deaths could also be explained by weak, zero or even negative "vaccine effectiveness" together with strong HVE due to people who are very old and/or ill, not getting the injections.
A notable feature of this graph is the high death rate in early 2021 for those with their presumably first injection. See CC below.
[BB] The AA effect (here assumed to be HVE) is much stronger for the 60-69 and 70-79 age groups than for the less numerous, and more prone to death at any time, 80+ group.
[CC] Looking at the 60-69 and 70-79 age groups in Fig 2, the second colour (blue) for those who died within 4 weeks of their first injection is 3 to 5 times higher in the high COVID periods than in the low COVID periods. This seems to indicate that the injections drastically weakened the injectees' ability to fight COVID-19 in this period. A likely mechanism is the immune system being overwhelmed by a flood of spike protein appearing in the bloodstream and on numerous cells, with this being much more than in a viral infection which a healthy immune system could strongly suppress. (The immune system can only try to destroy cells with spike proteins after they appear, at great cost to the body in general and necessarily distracting the immune system from destroying COVID-19 viruses.)
So far, my analysis means that the data shows evidence of strong HVE, that the purported "vaccine effectiveness" figures which would result from placebo-controlled trials is far over-estimated because they misclassify deaths within 4 weeks of the injections, and that we observe these 0 to 4 week from first injection deaths very clearly in the 60-79 age groups.
[DD] Now to the 3rd colour, light blue, in Fig 2, representing deaths of people who had had one injection, more than 4 weeks before dying, but not yet a second injection.
For the low COVID periods, these deaths are 3 or more times the rate of the 0-4 week group, for all three age groups. This can only be explained by a high level of deaths caused by the injections.
If we look at the ratios of these death rates to those of the uninjected, we find that they are higher in high COVID periods than in low COVID periods. Even if the injections did protect infected single-injected people from severe symptoms and death in this 4 weeks and above time after the injection, these higher death rates could still occur due to deaths from the injections themselves.
The data for the 2nd injection - first 4 weeks and after - and for the 3rd injection - first 4 weeks and after - seems to follow a roughly similar pattern, but at this point my analytical capacities are wearing thin.
This extreme negative vaccine effectiveness, regarding all deaths, not just those attributed to COVID-19, can be attributed to direct harmful impacts of the injections and the tolerogenic immune responses which tend to arise when the immune system is assaulted by repeated stimuli of the same kind, which are very strong - indicating that the immune system was not able to suppress them. Also, by early 2022, the initial Omicron variant had supplanted the Delta variant, and the injections had all (ideally) raised (ideally protective, but over time likely tolerogenic) immune responses to the spike protein of the original Wuhan variant which preceded Delta. Actual protection from these injections against Omicron, which probably infected most people, would have been weak.
The orange and red graphs of Fig 3, representing 80+ year olds with the first two injections (orange) and with a third (booster, red) also can be interpreted as waning initial protection due to the passage of time from the injections, their tolerogenic effects and the way the prevalent viral variants evolved to escape immunity generated by the (injection or infection induced) Wuhan version of the spike protein.
I subscribe to 174 substacks, many concerning COVID-19 etc. and I had not seen this most interesting article (ref 5) before:
Does the healthy vaccinee bias rule them all? Association of COVID-19 vaccination status and all-cause mortality from an analysis of data from 2.2 million individual health records
Tomáš Fürst, Angelika Bazalová, Tadeáš Fryčák, Jaroslav Janošek
International Journal of Infectious Diseases 2024-02-22
https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(24)00046-8/
Here is my attempt, without spending a few days on it, at making sense of these observations.
I didn't fully understand their model and their claim that their model reproduced the pattern of observations didn't seem right to me, however, the meaning of the colours in the model Fig 4 are different from those in the observations Fig 2 and I would need to spend an hour or two really analysing this to make sense of it.
Fig S5 (in the supplementary Word file) is of observations and uses the same colours as for Fig 2. Without looking too closely at these few hundred bars, I got the impression that their Fig 3 (bottom section) analysis was correct. This is my attempt at understanding this complex data:
[AA] In Fig 2, low COVID sections, the blue bars (2nd colour - dark blue is for non-injected) mortality rates for those who died 4 weeks or less after their first injection) are significantly lower than those of the uninjected, for all three age groups, by a factor of 3 or more.
This seems to indicate that the injected were inherently much healthier than those who were not - the "healthy vaccinee effect" (HVE).
See also Fig 1 at: https://drclarecraig.substack.com/p/why-i-am-backing-steve-kirsch-on. If this was a placebo controlled trial, this graph would indicate that the so-called vaccines saved lives. However, it was not, and the entire trend of "vaccinated" deaths could also be explained by weak, zero or even negative "vaccine effectiveness" together with strong HVE due to people who are very old and/or ill, not getting the injections.
A notable feature of this graph is the high death rate in early 2021 for those with their presumably first injection. See CC below.
[BB] The AA effect (here assumed to be HVE) is much stronger for the 60-69 and 70-79 age groups than for the less numerous, and more prone to death at any time, 80+ group.
[CC] Looking at the 60-69 and 70-79 age groups in Fig 2, the second colour (blue) for those who died within 4 weeks of their first injection is 3 to 5 times higher in the high COVID periods than in the low COVID periods. This seems to indicate that the injections drastically weakened the injectees' ability to fight COVID-19 in this period. A likely mechanism is the immune system being overwhelmed by a flood of spike protein appearing in the bloodstream and on numerous cells, with this being much more than in a viral infection which a healthy immune system could strongly suppress. (The immune system can only try to destroy cells with spike proteins after they appear, at great cost to the body in general and necessarily distracting the immune system from destroying COVID-19 viruses.)
This would be a short-term negative "vaccine effectiveness" which in general - or always - was not just ignored in conventional "vaccine effectiveness" studies, but was used to boost the so-called "vaccine effectiveness" by misclassifying (AKA miscategorizing) those deaths as being for people who were "unvaccinated". https://www.researchgate.net/publication/378831039_The_extent_and_impact_of_vaccine_status_miscategorisation_on_covid-19_vaccine_efficacy_studies, https://www.trialsitenews.com/a/uk-quants-large-of-observational-studies-touting-covid-19-vax-efficacy-a-statistical-illusion-due-to-rampant-miscategorization-bias-d042fe39, https://sanityunleashed.substack.com/p/the-extent-and-impact-of-vaccine and (from 2021) https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/12/the-impact-of-misclassifying-deaths-in.html and https://roundingtheearth.substack.com/p/probable-misclassification-of-vaccine).
So far, my analysis means that the data shows evidence of strong HVE, that the purported "vaccine effectiveness" figures which would result from placebo-controlled trials is far over-estimated because they misclassify deaths within 4 weeks of the injections, and that we observe these 0 to 4 week from first injection deaths very clearly in the 60-79 age groups.
[DD] Now to the 3rd colour, light blue, in Fig 2, representing deaths of people who had had one injection, more than 4 weeks before dying, but not yet a second injection.
For the low COVID periods, these deaths are 3 or more times the rate of the 0-4 week group, for all three age groups. This can only be explained by a high level of deaths caused by the injections.
If we look at the ratios of these death rates to those of the uninjected, we find that they are higher in high COVID periods than in low COVID periods. Even if the injections did protect infected single-injected people from severe symptoms and death in this 4 weeks and above time after the injection, these higher death rates could still occur due to deaths from the injections themselves.
The data for the 2nd injection - first 4 weeks and after - and for the 3rd injection - first 4 weeks and after - seems to follow a roughly similar pattern, but at this point my analytical capacities are wearing thin.
This extreme negative vaccine effectiveness, regarding all deaths, not just those attributed to COVID-19, can be attributed to direct harmful impacts of the injections and the tolerogenic immune responses which tend to arise when the immune system is assaulted by repeated stimuli of the same kind, which are very strong - indicating that the immune system was not able to suppress them. Also, by early 2022, the initial Omicron variant had supplanted the Delta variant, and the injections had all (ideally) raised (ideally protective, but over time likely tolerogenic) immune responses to the spike protein of the original Wuhan variant which preceded Delta. Actual protection from these injections against Omicron, which probably infected most people, would have been weak.
The orange and red graphs of Fig 3, representing 80+ year olds with the first two injections (orange) and with a third (booster, red) also can be interpreted as waning initial protection due to the passage of time from the injections, their tolerogenic effects and the way the prevalent viral variants evolved to escape immunity generated by the (injection or infection induced) Wuhan version of the spike protein.
I found a couple of Moderna VAERS reports from Czechia and added summaries of how the victims suffered.